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Tricia Penrose has become the second favourite to win Celebrity Big Brother  2013, despite being widely tipped for eviction last week.

 

Tricia has been backed from 249-1 to 5-2 on Betfair to win Celebrity Big  Brother – yet no-one knows why!

The Heartbeat star has been relatively anonymous on the programme so far, and  has consistently been languishing towards the bottom in popularity polls.

But late last week Penrose –  initially a 20-1 chance at the start of the  programme but who had drifted out to as high as 249-1 on Betfair after making  precious little impact on the show – began to catch the imagination of  punters..

And, in one of the biggest Reality TV betting moves ever, her odds have  tumbled. And tumbled. And tumbled.

At one stage, Rylan looked a certainty to win the show at odds of 2-7 on  Betfair, but his odds have now drifted to 4-5 as the mystery Penrose punt has  gathered pace.

Betfair spokesman Alex Bake commented: “This is, without doubt, one of the  biggest gambles in Reality TV history. Yet, no-one can quite see what has  sparked the punt.

“Tricia is beginning to come out of her shell and is getting more exposure in  the edits – in particular regards to standing up to the confrontational Heidi  and Spencer – but that alone doesn’t explain the weight of money for her.

“There are rumours of an orchestrated internet campaign to vote for her this  week. But at this stage the staggering gamble remains a complete mystery.”

Are you voting for Tricia? Do you know anyone who is? We want to

Read more: http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-...n.html#ixzz2IdACPqTC

FM
Originally Posted by stonks:

I smell something dodgy going on with a syndicate....

Me too, I'm trying to remember the details of the night on C4 when Brian ? won, almost up to the last minute it had been widely reported the twins were fave to win. There was a sudden betting change and Brian won. I remember the discussion on the Forum went into the early hours. FM's who understood betting explained what can happen between different betting shops that get to together to change the outcome. Shame I don't understand betting

Yellow Rose
Originally Posted by Garage Joe:
It's a complex world out there in betting land. Are you sure that she was priced at 249/1 100/1 etc. I don't recall prices like that in the past and thus I'm receiving a faint hint of hyperbole. I would not imagine that CBB was a huge market and maybe a few hundred here and there might affect the prices.

I can't quote the exact odds GJ, but they were very high, she was a rank outsider and initially favourite to go on the last eviction, then suddenly that changed v v dramatically a few hours before, she stayed and is now second favourite, it really is an incredible turn around.

Also, if a few hundred would affect the price, (I've no idea if it would or wouldn't?) then, if she did have odds as high as even 100/1 then whoever is putting those bets on could make an awful lot of telephone calls to vote for her and still be way in profit if she won

FM
Originally Posted by Garage Joe:
It's a complex world out there in betting land. Are you sure that she was priced at 249/1 100/1 etc. I don't recall prices like that in the past and thus I'm receiving a faint hint of hyperbole. I would not imagine that CBB was a huge market and maybe a few hundred here and there might affect the prices.

Just had a quick look through her betting history, and her odds haven't been anything like as high as 249/1. She was very briefly at 119/1 on Betfair (which can behave rather oddly at the best of times), but that's about it. Most bookies have had her between 20 and 40/1 for most of the series. Even on Betfair, she hasn't been above 40/1 since Wednesday.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/...tricia-penrose/today

(Click on the "All History" tab.)

 

There have been BB HMs with odds of 100/1 or greater in the past, but a couple of things to remember:

- Odds can lengthen enormously when a HM is up for eviction - even if they're not favourite to go - and then "correct" afterwards.

- When a HM has really long odds it's often simply because no one has bet on them. All it takes is one or two fairly big bets and those odds can tumble dramatically...

Eugene's Lair

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