I agree there is no doubt he intended to kill whoever he believed was behind the door.
I think the prosecution's difficulty will be trying to prove, beyond reasonable doubt, that Oscar knew the person in the bathroom was Reeva. Otherwise, the defence that he fired the shots because he felt terrified and vulnerable, believing intruders to be in his house, carries some weight.
Apparently the judge can lower the charge in South African courts by what I have been reading Yogi, its still a crime to kill a burglar if you are not under threat. I do think either way he should not be let off likely but fear he will.
I can't also accept he was that terrified, he had left the patio doors open to sleep...he got up to close them and bring the fans in just before the shooting, so that doesn't really wash with me he was that terrified or surely he would make sure his bedroom was secure before he went to sleep.