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This is likely to be my final betting thread for this series (although there might be an Eviction thread on Tuesday). As usual, I'm basing this mainly on the latest Betfair odds to win, but have simplfied some of the fractions.

 

Sam: Evens

Dexter: 2/1

Gina: 4/1

Jack & Joe: 24/1

Charlie: 47/1
Sophie: 66/1

 

Charlie and Sophie are on the same odds with a few bookies.

In truth, Sam's slightly longer than Evens, but it's very close and he's still not quite odds-on with any bookie.

Gina has been sliding the last few days, but is still 2/1 with a few bookies.

Dexter's odds have been shortening all week. He was 11/1 on last week's thread, but is now 7/4 with a few bookies.

 

No doubt this will change after nominations (and if someone other than Sam gets a pass to the Final)...

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Originally Posted by Eugene's Lair:

This is likely to be my final betting thread for this series (although there might be an Eviction thread on Tuesday). As usual, I'm basing this mainly on the latest Betfair odds to win, but have simplfied some of the fractions.

 

Sam: Evens

Dexter: 2/1

Gina: 4/1

Jack & Joe: 24/1

Charlie: 47/1
Sophie: 66/1

 

Charlie and Sophie are on the same odds with a few bookies.

In truth, Sam's slightly longer than Evens, but it's very close and he's still not quite odds-on with any bookie.

Gina has been sliding the last few days, but is still 2/1 with a few bookies.

Dexter's odds have been shortening all week. He was 11/1 on last week's thread, but is now 7/4 with a few bookies.

 

No doubt this will change after nominations (and if someone other than Sam gets a pass to the Final)...

 

All this in formation is like another language to me. I understand absolutely non of it. All I do is look who is at the top of your list and assume they are the one who could win. 

Enthusiastic Contrafibularities
Originally Posted by Enthusiastic Contrafibularities:

All this in formation is like another language to me. I understand absolutely non of it. All I do is look who is at the top of your list and assume they are the one who could win. 

Well, yes: that's basically it!

The whole probability thing can get very complicated, but think about it like this: on average, Sam has roughly a 50% chance of winning, Dexter 30% and Gina 20% (I'm ignoring the other 3 as they all have a less than 5% chance).

So: if you held the final vote to win 10 times, the betting suggests that - on average - Sam would win 5 times, Dexter 3 times and Gina twice...

Eugene's Lair

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