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I couldn’t be bothered doing this last week, but I thought it might be a good idea to take a snapshot prior to “Armageddon Week”.

Current odds to win (from Betfair as usual):

 

Mark: 13/5 Favourite

Winston: 3/1

Chris: 3/1

Ashleigh: 8/1

Christopher: 25/1

Danielle: 26/1

Ash: 37/1 

Helen: 39/1

Kimberly: 85/1

Steven: 104/1

Marlon: 132/1

 

There’s barely a cigarette paper between the top three on Betfair, but it’s more clearly defined at the “regular” bookies: they have Winston on 2/1 and Mark 7/4 favourite.

Since Friday, Ashleigh has started to close on the leading group, but not as quickly (yet) as many predicted. Christopher’s odds are shorter with most of the other bookies, but still drifting a bit.

Helen and Ash have moved out of the “no-hopers” group, but Ash is still 50/1 with most of the others.

Replies sorted oldest to newest

Originally Posted by Cold Sweat:

On Betfair this morning:

Ash 18/1

Helen 21/1

...and Chris and Winston have both drifted slightly (7/2).
Ash and Helen have come across well over the last few days. Will be interesting to see if it lasts the week...

Eugene's Lair
Originally Posted by Aimee:
Originally Posted by Cold Sweat: 

On Betfair this morning:

Ash 18/1

Helen 21/1

Does that mean they are doing better?

Yes: or rather, it means that the perception amongst people betting on BB is that they're doing better.

As more people bet on a HM to win BB, the more the odds for that HM shorten (i.e. the first number gets smaller), and therefore the amount of money you'd get back if that HM does win the series is reduced.

 

Its very important to remember however that although the bookies will look at the forums, online polls, etc, when setting odds, ultimately the odds are only a reflection of how people are betting; not how they are voting. Having said that, BB is an almost unique case in that those who gamble on the result are also able to influence it. It's still worth remembering that the bettting odds have got the last few evictions wrong, though...

Eugene's Lair
Originally Posted by Eugene's Lair:

       
Originally Posted by Aimee:
Originally Posted by Cold Sweat: 

On Betfair this morning:

Ash 18/1

Helen 21/1

Does that mean they are doing better?

Yes: or rather, it means that the perception amongst people betting on BB is that they're doing better.

As more people bet on a HM to win BB, the more the odds for that HM shorten (i.e. the first number gets smaller), and therefore the amount of money you'd get back if that HM does win the series is reduced.

 

Its very important to remember however that although the bookies will look at the forums, online polls, etc, when setting odds, ultimately the odds are only a reflection of how people are betting; not how they are voting. Having said that, BB is an almost unique case in that those who gamble on the result are also able to influence it. It's still worth remembering that the bettting odds have got the last few evictions wrong, though...


       


Thanks for explaining
Aimee

Thanks for the odds .....I still reckon that despite everything ....given BB's manipulation , Ash ...or even Helen could end up winning ....there's defo been a shift in their popularity over the last week/ten days !! 

Baz

It’s a bet I would rather lose… but it was just irresistible.

 

Ashleigh is still shortening in the win market - now 7/1… but I’m seeing no evidence of BB pushing her and I’m in the sort of pensive mood that I was in on the night when Lauren was supposedly going to stay over LukeA.

Cold Sweat

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