Order:-

Vettel
Webber
Alonso
Hamilton
Kobayashi
Button
Rosberg
Sutil
Schumacher
Hulkenberg

Button has just passed Kobayashi for 5th place.

So the 5 title contenders are now the top 5 on the track.

Barrichello and Alguersuari have a coming together and Barrichello has a puncture.
In to the pits he goes and is now running 18th.

Klien never really got going and has now retired.

Kubica is eyeing up Hulkenberg for P10.

Vettel and Webber are now making their way through the back markers.

Massa now eyeing up the car in P14.

Rosberg has passed Kobayashi now as well.

Vettel has a crocodile of eight cars ahead of him, but doesn't appear to be having too much of a problem passing them. However Webber's passage doesn't seem so smooth.

di Grassi thinks he has a problem and goes into his garage, but is on track again but is 7 laps adrift.

ACCIDENT!!!!

Liuzzi crashes and the Safety Car has been deployed.

Several cars go into the pits.

Rosberg has pitted twice now under the Safety Car,

Safety car in now, all the cars are bunched up now, so it's difficult to see where everyone is.

Schumacher's now P7 with Hulkenberg now down to P8

Alguersuari (P10) and Massa (P11) clip each other. Massa runs way wide and loses several places. He's now P15.

Heidfeld gets a drive-through penalty for ignoring the blue flags.

Massa now fighting with the other Torro Rosso.

Order:-

Vettel
Webber
Alonso
Hamilton
Button
Rosberg
Schumacher
Hulkenberg
Kubica
Kobayashi

Result:-

1. Vettel
2. Webber
3. Alonso
4. Hamilton
5. Button
6. Rosberg
7. Schumacher
8. Hulkenberg - lapped
9. Kubica- lapped
10. Kobayashi- lapped
11. Alguersuari- lapped
12. Sutil- lapped
13. Buemi- lapped
14. Barrichello- lapped
15. Massa- lapped
16. Petrov- lapped
17. Heidfeld- lapped
18. Kovalainen- lapped
19. Trulli- lapped
20. Glock- lapped
21. Senna - lapped
22. Klien - lapped
23. di Grassi - lapped
24. Liuzzi - crash

There are now only four in contention for the Drivers Championship:-

Alonso   - 246
Webber  - 238
Vettel    - 231
Hamilton - 222

Hamilton, in 4th place, now has a fairly unrealistic chance, being currently 24 points behind Alonso.
Firstly, he would HAVE to finish in first place. Secondly, Alonso would HAVE to get no points. Thirdly, Webber would HAVE to get no more than 8 points. Fourthly, Vettel would HAVE to get no more than 15 points.

Vettel, in third place, has a better chance than Hamilton and not so conditional.
Although his chance of taking the title rely on getting points himself AND Alonso, Webber and Hamilton getting sufficiently few, there is a greater degree of flexibility for him.

If he wins the last race to get the title he also needs Alonso to get less than10 points. The points that Webber and Hamilton might get wuld not affect him. Although if Webber were second  they would have the same number of points, Vettel would be given the title as he would have won more races.

If he comes second, Alonso woud have to get no more than 2 points, Webber would have to get no more than 10 points and again Hamilton's position wouldn't affect him.

If he comes third, he could still get the title if Alonso got no points AND Webber got no more than 8 points AND Hamilton didn't win.

 If he finishes lower than third he will have no chance of the title.

Webber, in second place, being only 8 points behind Alonso, stands a very good chance of the title.

If he wins the last race all he would need is for Alonso to be 3rd or worse. (No more than 15 points)

If he is second, Alonso must get no more than 8 points AND Vettel must not win. Hamilton's position won't matter.

If he is third, Alonso must get no more than 6 points AND Vettel must not win. Again Hamilton's position won't matter.

If he is fourth, Alonso must get no more than 2 points AND Vettel must not win. Again Hamilton's position wont matter.

If he is fifth, Alonso must get no more than 1 point AND Vettel must not get more than 15 points Again Hamilton's position will not matter.

Alonso, being the current Championship leader AND 8 points ahead of 2nd place Webber, will win unconditionally if he comes 1st or 2nd..The lower he finishes, the more conditional his title win would be, thus if he came third, he would only need Webber NOT to win the race in order to win the title.

To summarise:-

Alonso COULD win the title even if he got no points from the last race.

Webber COULD win the title as long as he finished the last race in the top 5.

Vettel COULD win the title as long as he finished the last race in the top three.

Hamilton COULD win the title Only if he wins the last race.

The lower they finish and the lower they are in the championship currently, the more conditional their chances are.

It's late and I kept being interrupted. I might have made a couple of minor errors in my calculations.

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Yas Marina, 12-14 November 2010

Fri 12 Nov: Practice 1 0900-1030; Practice 2 1300-1430

Sat 13 Nov: Practice 3 1000-1100; Qualifying 1300

Sun 14 Nov: Race 1300

 

The word from the Spanish journalists is that the Ferrari simulator says the Red Bull will be 0.4 seconds quicker a lap at Abu Dhabi than the Ferrari. Might account for Alonso's tetchy mood.

The Australian Grand Prix's place on next year's Formula 1 calendar is under threat because of a row over fees with CAMS, the country's motorsport governing body.

Hamilton is backing Webber for the Drivers' Championship....after himself of course.

Q1:-

Button sets the first time and Hamilton beats it....and so do 6 others.

Current drop zone:-

Senna
di Grassi
Glock
Klien
Rosberg
Kubica
Kobayashi

Rosberg improves and Kovalainen drops in.

Kubica and Kobayashi both improve and drop Trulli and Alguersuari.

Vettel and Hamilton are having a wee tussle for top spot, but Alonso pops ahead of them both.

In the last few seconds Buemi (P17) and Alguersuari (P18) are both running.
Alguersuari crosses the line first and goes P17. Buemi crosses a few seconds later,but fails to recapture P17 - he's out!

Final Q1 drop zone:-

18. Buemi
19. Trulli
20. Kovalainen
21. Glock
22. di Grassi
23. Senna
24. Klien

Q2.

First out Massa, followed by Alonso

Top 6:-

Button
Alonso
Massa
Hulkenberg
Liuzzi
Sutil

Hamilton gets the breaking wrong and slides off.

Current Q2 drop zone:-

Hulkenberg
Liuzzi
Sutil
Alguersuari
Kobayashi
Hamilton
Heidfeld

Top:-

Vettel
Button
Alonso
Webber

Hamilton nearly hits Massa, but runs over a bollard instead. He's still P17.

He's now popped into P2.