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Now all the HMs are in, here are the early odds from Betfair:

Sam - 26/7

Daley - 41/9

Wolfy - 126/17

Sophie - 49/6

Dan - 10/1

Callum - 57/5

Jack & Joe - 62/5

Hazel - 143/10

Charlie - 24/1

Jackie - 28/1

Sallie - 29/1

Dexter - 41/1

Jemima - 61/1

Gina - 123/1

 

Observations:

Daley straight in as second favourite.

Hazel's starting odds aren't as short as I expected. 

Charlie's odds are shorter than her mother's. A lot of bookies have them on the same odds at the moment, but I would have expected Jackie's to be shorter.

Sallie might be safe from nomination this week.

Gina's looking like toast at the moment...

Replies sorted oldest to newest

Originally Posted by Garage Joe:
That's an unusual set of prices.

That's because they're from Betfair. It's a betting market rather than a "proper" bookies, so the odds are (supposedly) a more accurate representation of what's going on. It tends to be a better and quicker indicator of trends than the bookies.

It can be a bit misleading at the higher end though. Gina's odds will be high simply because no one's bet on her yet: one single bet (and not necessarily a very big one) could skew it considerably...

Eugene's Lair
Originally Posted by Cold Sweat:

Week one 3 way eviction last year - Lydia was clear favourite to be evicted all week... but Victoria went. With vote to evict would Lydia have almost certainly gone?

The bookies have never really got to grips properly with "Vote to Save". Having said that, Victoria could consider herself unlucky as there was less than 1% in it. I do think Lydia would have gone under Vote to Evict, though...

Eugene's Lair
Originally Posted by velvet donkey:

If I had a Betfair acc ( and thank f I don't) I'd be laying Sam all night.

One of the things I forgot to mention in the OP is that although Sam's still clear favourite across the board, he's a little bit longer on Betfair than with the bookies (and lengthening all the time). Betfair have him currently at about 4/1, while most of the bookies have him at 3/1 (with one virtually at 2/1). Not much in it I grant you, but there's a definite trend.

Personally, I think that trend's correct: I understand the first impressions of Sam, but I think even 4/1 is unrealistic.

Eugene's Lair
Originally Posted by Syd:

I think I might for the first time ever, get my O/H to place a bet for me, will make my decision tomorrow,  oooooow who to pick?.

Ooooooh I did a bet on the National - I've got quite a bit of credit in an account somewhere - can't remember with who and user name etc. -  Must do a bit of tec work.

 

I'll give it till the middle of next week.

Soozy Woo
Originally Posted by Videostar:

Hazel, about half way up, I like that, it's a good place to start.

I predict that she'll last about half way if she's lucky Vids...not a winners profile http://www.channel5.com/big brother and if she gets in a fauxmance, (odds on,) probably even less

 

If I were to place a bet at this stage for the top five I'd go for Sophie, Wolfy, Daley, JacknJoe, Sam, probably in that order

FM

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