I'll be voting Labour

^^^^ what hoochie said

^^^ what they said.

I will be voting Labour

Cosy in here in't it?

Labour in Scotland,Can't stand the SNP.The Tories are no hopers up here.

SNP....always

Based on extremely early results, I have predicted, using the BBC swingometer machine, that Labour will win every single seat across the UK, giving the biggest political surprse ever seen in this country. (I'm not about to go down to the bookies and put money on this though - I wonder what odds I'd get!) (This was posted before I saw Scotty's vote which would give SNP precisely 1 seat)

LOL..... Conservative

Our current poll results would result in:
Labour 551 seats, Liberal Democats 64, Conservatives 13 and Other 24.

I don't think we are representative of the country do you?

I have my ideas of why that is.....

Oh do tell Ducky.

Toffs don't use forums?

That was a joke!!!!

The main reason I would guess, is that we are a mainly female population.

I have voted Liberal most of my adult life, and I see no reason to change that this time.
(Although South Yorkshire is well endowed with safe Labour seats.)

Err strange logic? Females vote Labour males vote Conservative.  I think I'd better go back and read your post again

Reference: I think you had because I didn't say that.

"I don't think we are representative of the country do you? I have my ideas of why that is..."

I said the population here is not representative of the country as a whole...and it isn't, we have a high percentage of females. There are other factors too, that make us unrepresentative....it is too simplistic a view to say females vote Labour, males conservative.

*falls off sofa again*

I certainly wasn't saying that, and of course I knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that you were not saying it I was just trying to follow your logic.

Reference: It wasn't logic it was a statement of fact ...we have a majority of female members.

YOU made the "logical" jump...so maybe it was impolite to aim this smiley at me >>   ?

If I continually press the Re-vote button..... can I change the odds?

I was aiming the smiley at myself, confused of North Devon , I remain confused.  Incidentally that is the way I use every smiley, to indicate my mood, they are never used as weapons and 'aimed' at people.

Whatever you say Squiggle.

So we both agree it was YOUR strange logic then yes?

I can't help but look at surveys/polls from a mathematical view point, in other words whether the sample is representative. I am tempted to list the other factors that make this one not so...... but the oven needs cleaning!

So putting these together could mean that toffettes vote Labour and toffs vote Conservative, but I think not.

So far we've had far too few votes cast to form anything like a representative result. I think it is a statistical fact that you need at least 100 votes to get a 98.5% degree of confidence of reliability in a sample of people. Also a higher proportion of younger people use the internet than older people - that could suggest that younger people feel more drawn to Labour than to Conservative, but we have far too few results to be able to rely on that.

Thanks El Loro! You look like you're going to save me the job.   (My oven will be much appreciative )

Oh yes ducky we are now in total accord, and please do not let me keep you from your oven on this nice bank holiday.

I've just tried this to see what happens. All that happens is that your exisitng vote is removed to be replaced with your new vote. The total number of votes cast remains unchanged. Of course someone who was prepared to register under a variety of IDs could vote under each ID, but I would think that if that person was found out they would be banned from this site for misuse.

I think it is a fair assumption El Loro, that no matter how many people participate,  judging from posts elsewhere,  the forum poll is probably going to show a resounding win for Labour But how representative we are is another matter, only time will tell.

LOL... I should think so

Regional differences will additionally make quite a difference in where you draw your sample from, so you would have to spread your net quite wide and would I think need much more than a sample of 100.  I wonder what sample the poll companies use?

I nearly... NEARLY...  went off on one about representative sample sizes... & confidence levels & formula to calculate samples sizes....

but I stopped myself... just in time!

First i've heard of this.

You are a closet statistician and I claim my £5

sample size, self selecting sample, distorted demographic... ooops .. I'll get me coat


Z.

I think they tend to use between 1000 and 2000 people.

For anyone who is desparate to look at the maths behind poll sizes, here is a link to some info about it, but personally I think I'll go out for a walk.

Usually at least a 1000 and then they adjust the results based on the actual make up for the sample, e.g. age sex occupation etc  compared with a theoretical 'typical' sample


Z.

lol... not by choice!!!

but both when studying and at work there was need to embrace the stats stuff  ... and once you get into it its just sooo cool!

only.. most people don't think so... and I did learn not to expect much enthusiasm from other people on the subject... in fact I learned its probably best not to share my excitement at it all!  

But I am allowed to shout & mock the cosmetic adverts.. the small print at the bottom of the screen...  'based on 7 out of 11 women tested'

SEE!!!   SEE!!    

people just don't appreciate the beauty of it all...

To paraphrase Michael Winner "calm down dear its only statistics"

8 out of 10 cats prefer whiskas...The other 5 million did not express a preference

Z.

One fondly remembers the book, "How to lie with statistics!" and the concept of the "Gee-Whizz!" graph. It's still in use today, and everyday.