Interesting that they have Cameron at 7/1. On first impressions, I quite like him.

Yogi19 posted:

Interesting that they have Cameron at 7/1. On first impressions, I quite like him.

I think Cameron and the last girl to go in (can't remember her name) will become easy nom targets for some of the others. Those two need to very quickly build alliances or hope some of the louder HM's do something immensely annoying to tick off the other HM's. 😊

Enthusiastic Contrafibularities posted:

Yogi19 posted:

Interesting that they have Cameron at 7/1. On first impressions, I quite like him.

I think Cameron and the last girl to go in (can't remember her name) will become easy nom targets for some of the others. Those two need to very quickly build alliances or hope some of the louder HM's do something immensely annoying to tick off the other HM's. 😊

Pretty sure that was Zoe, the redhead single-parent from Halifax.

No nominations for the first week, so it will all come down to "BigCoin", and possibly who chose to sleep in "Bed 13" (although it would be funny if it turns out that was Ellis!   )

On paper, the BigCoin idea seemed a good one, but we all know about BB's ability to screw-up good ideas...   Having mentioned BB7 and the "Big Brotherhood" elsewhere, I can see the potential here for a number of popular HMs going up for eviction. Looking through the betting odds list, one of the main reason's Sian's favourite is probably because she's expected to do well with BigCoin, and I think Cian would be safe too. However some of the other early favourites seemed to take time to find their feet and may therefore be at risk: Tomasz is the obvious one there, as he seemed completely lost when it started to rain BigCoin…

[Following feedback on the Live Thread, I'm going to do the same as I have with the Eviction Betting Odds thread and update this as a general betting thread from now on.]

Latest Betting Odds (To Win) - 30/9/18:

[Courtesy of BetFred]:

Zoe 11/4;

Lewis F 7/2;

Tomasz 5/1;

Akeem 6/1;

Cian 7/1;

Cameron 8/1;

Sian 12/1;

Brooke 25/1;

Kay 25/1;

Isaac 40/1;

Kenaley 50/1

A few provisos here:

Most other bookies have Lewis F either as current favourite to win (PaddyPower have him at 5/2), or else dead-level with Zoe at 3/1. The BetFred odds roughly represent "best value" on the pair, though.

Looking at all the bookies, Akeem and Tomasz are roughly equal-3rd overall. Sky Bet also have Cian in the mix there, but they're currently alone on that one...

Again looking at the overall picture for the other girls: The bookies have Sian 10-12/1, with the shorter odds putting her in the mix with Cian and Cameron.

Brooke's looking more like 20/1 overall, with Kay 33/1.

Kenaley's the rank outsider at 50/1 across the board, so with two HMs being put up for nomination by the public I would say her, Isaac and possibly Kay are in the mix for that.

Thanks Eugene 

Latest Betting Odds (To Win) - 7/10/18:

[Courtesy of BetFred]

This includes the new HMs, but won’t take in to account the fact that Tomasz has immunity this week…

Lewis F 7/2;

Zoe 4/1;

Akeem 4/1;

Cian 6/1;

Cameron 6/1;

Tomasz 10/1;

Isabella 12/1;

Sian 33/1;

Brooke 33/1;

Kenaley 33/1;

Hussain 50/1

Probably the most interesting thing this week is that Tomasz’s odds have lengthened a bit, and he’s no longer in the “leading group”.

The top three – Lewis, Zoe and Akeem – are extremely close with virtually all the bookies.

Some of the other bookies have Isabella on shorter odds than Tomasz.

All of the other bookies have Sian, Brooke, and Hussain on much shorter odds than those above (some have Sian at 16/1), although they also all have them in the same order. (BetFred therefore represents “best value” for any FM actually wanting to put a bet on…)

The lone exception amongst the longer-odds HMs is Kenaley: one other bookie has her on the same odds as Husain, but all the others have her as the 50/1 outsider.

I would therefore suggest that Kenaley’s going to be one of the favourites for the Viewer’s Nomination this week…

Good to see Thomasz dropping down the favourites list

Yogi19 posted:

Good to see Thomasz dropping down the favourites list

Yes, not far enough for my liking 🤣🤣🤣

Latest Betting Odds (To Win) - 14/10/18:

[Courtesy of BetFred]

Very little change this week. Still; for completeness…

Lewis F 2/1;

Zoe 4/1;

Akeem 4/1;

Cian 13/2;

Cameron 13/2;

Tomasz 12/1;

Isabella 12/1;

Sian 33/1;

Brooke 33/1;

Hussain 50/1

For once, there's almost complete agreement amongst the bookies. The only difference is that most other bookies have a bit of a gap between Tomasz and Isabella, with Tomasz generally at 10/1, and Isabella as high as 16/1 with a couple of bookies (which is therefore best value if any FM is actually thinking of placing a bet on her).

Probably the most interesting thing this week is that Akeem's odds haven't changed.

His odds lengthened last week after he was nominated, and he was as high as 8/1  with a couple of bookies. However after surviving on Friday he's back to joint 2nd-favourite.

So far, the betting odds have been a good guide as to who will be up via the Viewers' Nomination, which would therefore imply that Hussain is likely to be the public's choice this week. However I'm not convinced this time: although Hussain isn't popular with the viewers, I think he's got a core support who don't necessarily want him to win, but still want him to stay in there to annoy the others. If I'm right, that would therefore suggest Brooke or Sian are in the firing line. That said, I've seen hints on DS of tactical voting: viewers know HMs like Lewis and Akeem are safe so are voting for others instead, with Sian and Isabella probably benefiting the most. How much this will actually affect the poll result remains to be seen...

Of course, even if the public don't nominate Hussain, it's still highly likely that the HMs will...

I’m hoping this time the bookies are wrong ....at least about Lewis 

I'm not. I have £50 on  him at 7/2    

And I hope you're having a good day Baz    

velvet donkey posted:

I'm not. I have £50 on  him at 7/2    

 

And I hope you're having a good day Baz    

Well naturally I hope you win Velvet ....but not with Lewis 

velvet donkey posted:

I'm not. I have £50 on  him at 7/2    

 

And I hope you're having a good day Baz    

Good luck! 

Latest Betting Odds (To Win) - 21/10/18:

[Courtesy of BetFred]

Little change again this week: Zoe has slipped a bit, and the HMs have spread out more. Lewis is now very much the favourite, and is pushing close to Evens.

Lewis F 11/10;

Akeem 3/1;

Cian 6/1;

Zoe 6/1;

Cameron 12/1;

Tomasz 16/1;

Brooke 33/1;

Sian 33/1

There's some variance amongst the other bookies, but the order remains roughly the same.

For most HMs, other bookies are offering longer odds. The big exception is Cameron: He's down to 8/1 with one bookie, so 12/1 represents best value.

BetFred have Cian and Zoe both on 6/1, but most other bookies have Zoe at 7/1.

The story's even more complicated with Brooke and Sian. I've put Sian as the outsider because her odds on average are longer, but both vary enormously. Brooke's odds are as low as 25/1 in some places, and you can get 50/1 on either HM if you shop around...

BTW: Those who have been interested in my betting threads will have noticed that I didn't update the "Eviction Odds" thread for Friday. This was simply because I couldn't find any odds to post!

I think the bookies got cold feet on Friday because 

1) The voting lines closed very early at 8pm - two hours before the live show started; and

2) No one really knew how the 2nd eviction would work. 

Thanks Eugene ....in this case I’m hoping the bookies are wrong ....at least about Lewis 

Baz posted:

Thanks Eugene ....in this case I’m hoping the bookies are wrong ....at least about Lewis 

Looking at Eugene's posts, Lewis seems to be pretty much stuck in that winners spot. I just wonder if he is striking a note with various people, maybe seen as a bit of a victim.

Enthusiastic Contrafibularities posted:

Baz posted:

Thanks Eugene ....in this case I’m hoping the bookies are wrong ....at least about Lewis 

Looking at Eugene's posts, Lewis seems to be pretty much stuck in that winners spot. I just wonder if he is striking a note with various people, maybe seen as a bit of a victim.

I think it’s more that people ....not on here ....are ignoring his nasty personality because he is easy on the eye ! 

Latest Betting Odds (To Win) - 28/10/18:

[Courtesy of BetFred]

Lots of changes due to the two HMs who left on Friday...

Cameron 10/11;

Akeem 7/4;

Cian 6/1;

Brooke 16/1;

Zoe 20/1;

Sian 33/1

Lewis' removal and Tomasz's eviction have shaken things up, of course, but there had already been a lot of movement during the week. Even though he was up for eviction, Akeem's odds actually shortened, while Tomasz had fallen to 50/1 outsider by Friday. With Lewis out of the picture as well, though, Cameron has leapfrogged Akeem to become the new favourite to win.

Sian's looking favourite to go on Friday, although it's a closer call as to who the bookies think will join her. Most bookies have Brooke's odds shorter than Zoe's, however Brookes vary between 14 and 18/1 across the board, while Zoe's vary between 16 and 22/1.

Eugene's Lair posted:

Latest Betting Odds (To Win) - 28/10/18:

[Courtesy of BetFred]

Lots of changes due to the two HMs who left on Friday...

 

Cameron 10/11;

Akeem 7/4;

Cian 6/1;

Brooke 16/1;

Zoe 20/1;

Sian 33/1

 

Lewis' removal and Tomasz's eviction have shaken things up, of course, but there had already been a lot of movement during the week. Even though he was up for eviction, Akeem's odds actually shortened, while Tomasz had fallen to 50/1 outsider by Friday. With Lewis out of the picture as well, though, Cameron has leapfrogged Akeem to become the new favourite to win.

 

Sian's looking favourite to go on Friday, although it's a closer call as to who the bookies think will join her. Most bookies have Brooke's odds shorter than Zoe's, however Brookes vary between 14 and 18/1 across the board, while Zoe's vary between 16 and 22/1.

Thanks Eugene 

Thanks Eugene 😍

I don't expect to have any eviction odds tomorrow so I thought I'd do an update of the winner odds. There have been some interesting changes in the girls' odds...

Latest Betting Odds (To Win) - 1/11/18:

[Courtesy of BetFred]

Cameron 8/11;

Akeem 13/8;

Cian 10/1;

Sian 20/1;

Zoe 33/1;

Brooke 40/1

On BetFred, Sian has leapfrogged the other girls, with Brooke and Zoe now looking favourites to go tomorrow. However the broader picture is a lot closer: several bookies have all three girls on exactly the same odds! 

The boys are looking a lot more stable, although Cian's odds have lengthened (he's on 14/1 with one bookie). As I've said elsewhere (  ), I think his odds are unrealistically long, and he could give Cameron and Akeem a run for their money - especially once we're down to the final four...

Eugene's Lair posted:

I don't expect to have any eviction odds tomorrow so I thought I'd do an update of the winner odds. There have been some interesting changes in the girls' odds...

 

Latest Betting Odds (To Win) - 1/11/18:

[Courtesy of BetFred]

 

Cameron 8/11;

Akeem 13/8;

Cian 10/1;

Sian 20/1;

Zoe 33/1;

Brooke 40/1

 

On BetFred, Sian has leapfrogged the other girls, with Brooke and Zoe now looking favourites to go tomorrow. However the broader picture is a lot closer: several bookies have all three girls on exactly the same odds! 

 

The boys are looking a lot more stable, although Cian's odds have lengthened (he's on 14/1 with one bookie). As I've said elsewhere (  ), I think his odds are unrealistically long, and he could give Cameron and Akeem a run for their money - especially once we're down to the final four...

 

Thanks Eugene I wish more people were aware of how false Cameron is I hope they are right about the bottom  three though ....I’m a bit worried that Akeem has shot himself in the foot a bit this week ....but hopefully the vote to save will work in his favour .

Eugene's Lair posted:

 

The boys are looking a lot more stable, although Cian's odds have lengthened (he's on 14/1 with one bookie). As I've said elsewhere (  ), I think his odds are unrealistically long, and he could give Cameron and Akeem a run for their money - especially once we're down to the final four...

...and sure enough Cian's now 7/1 across the board.

Cameron's are still shortening a little, while Akeem's are drifting slightly...

Probably the last update of the series, and perhaps the last ever... 

Latest Betting Odds (To Win) - 3/11/18:

[Courtesy of BetFred]

Cameron 8/13;

Cian 11/4;

Akeem 6/1;

Zoe 12/1

Looking at the other bookies, these odds represent best value for Cameron and Akeem: Cameron's as low as 1/2 (I.e. 2/1 on) with one bookie, while Akeem's 9/2 with most of the others. 

Zoe is at 20/1 with most other bookies, and looks likely to finish 4th.

It's difficult to tie these odds with the online polls. There's been a lot of support for Cian on the Tellymix poll, and that's probably responsible for his odds shortening. However the Tellymix poll has Cian on nearly 45% of the entire vote!   Cameron's second on that at about 21% while Akeem and Zoe are very close at just under 17% each.

It's perhaps worth bearing in mind that although the Tellymix poll represents a large number of votes (over 4000 at the moment), it's open to everyone and - despite what some claim - it's really quite easy to vote in it multiple times. 

The DS poll represents a lot fewer votes, but you have to be a member to vote and therefore multiple voting's pretty-much impossible. Cian's currently top of that too, but it's much closer with Akeem 2nd and Cameron further back in 3rd.

https://tellymix.co.uk/reality...l-who-wins-2018.html

https://forums.digitalspy.com/...o-do-you-want-to-win

Thanks Eugene I think that is the way it will pan out but I think Cian may just pip Cameron to the post ....the tide has definitely turned on FB .

Baz posted:

Thanks Eugene I think that is the way it will pan out but I think Cian may just pip Cameron to the post ....the tide has definitely turned on FB .

I think the way they handle the evictions could prove crucial.

As I've posted elsewhere, the polls close at 9pm (before the Final show starts), and then they'll evict the bottom two.

The polls will presumably then reopen during the show as a head-to-head: if the totals at that point are reasonably close, and if the polls remain open for a reasonable amount of time, I can genuinely see Cameron losing out by the time they finally close...

Eugene's Lair posted:

Baz posted:

Thanks Eugene I think that is the way it will pan out but I think Cian may just pip Cameron to the post ....the tide has definitely turned on FB .

I think the way they handle the evictions could prove crucial.

As I've posted elsewhere, the polls close at 9pm (before the Final show starts), and then they'll evict the bottom two.

The polls will presumably then reopen during the show as a head-to-head: if the totals at that point are reasonably close, and if the polls remain open for a reasonable amount of time, I can genuinely see Cameron losing out by the time they finally close...

Not sure this even valid now, but I just wanted to squeeze in a rather surprising update. Current odds on BetFred:

Cameron 1/3;

Cian 4/1;

Zoe 10/1:

Akeem 12/1

In other words: Cian and Akeem have both lengthened, while Cameron and Zoe have both shortened.

There was a bit of a panic on DS earlier in the day because Zoe's odds got down to virtually 4/1 on Betfair (and 5/1 on at least one high street bookies), raising concerns of a betting scam. In reality it looks like a few people put fairly large wagers on the outsider (as I posted further up, Zoe was 12/1 yesterday), and the bookies adjusted their odds accordingly. Zoe's odds have finally corrected, but one side effect is that Akeem now remains the outsider.

I was hoping Akeem might at least beat Zoe  Thanks Eugene ....and thank you for all your work throughout the series 

Baz posted:

I was hoping Akeem might at least beat Zoe  Thanks Eugene ....and thank you for all your work throughout the series 

Thank you Eugene for giving us the heads up throughout the series

thank you Eugene for these betting odds

Well they were wrong this time ....but I’m glad 

Baz posted:

Well they were wrong this time ….but I’m glad 

So am I.