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As usual, I'm basing this mainly on the latest Betfair odds to win, but have simplified some of the more complicated fractions.

 

Gina: 8/11

Sam: 7/2

Sophie: 14/1

Dexter: 16/1

Callum: 17/1

Charlie: 28/1

Jack & Joe: 37/1
Hazel: 75/1

 

Not much change in the order this week. The big news is that Gina is now odds-on to win.

Dexter has drifted a bit on Betfair, but both he and Sophie are shorter with most bookies. (Dexter is 7/1 with a couple, and is ahead of Sophie with most.)

Charlie and the Twins have also drifted further, and now lost touch with the main pack. Most bookies have the Twins either level or ahead of Charlie…

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I think support for Sam may rocket in the coming weeks. BB are giving him a painstakingly careful edit to the extent that he is perceived as an innocent child rather than a 23/24 year old adult. Watch out for an edit tonight showing Sam peacefully sleeping through the Charlie/Hazel argument that just about everyone else became tangled up in.

 

On the Saturday HL show he was given a task that depicted him as a bronzed Adonis having banter with the tanning girls – and the female HM’s watching on commented that he had a great body. What we didn’t see was his lengthy discussion regarding previous HM’s with disabilities who had done really well (Pete Bennett & Mikey Hughes) and how he was β€œrepresenting” – it sounded like he had done his homework – but it  also sounded (to me at least) like he viewed success through the process as entitlement. Tonight, during the letters from home, we will hear this β€œrepresenting” aspect presented in a gentler, heartfelt way and most importantly – directed at him rather than stated by him.

 

Sam had his MILF early on, his bro-mance throughout and survived the big mid-season twist – it’s a solid (if unexceptional) story β€“ but it will gain momentum down the home stretch.

 

We may have an odds-on favourite – but we also have a serious (yet barely visible) challenger!

Cold Sweat
Originally Posted by Cold Sweat:

Sam had his MILF early on, his bro-mance throughout and survived the big mid-season twist – it’s a solid (if unexceptional) story β€“ but it will gain momentum down the home stretch.

 

We may have an odds-on favourite – but we also have a serious (yet barely visible) challenger!

The thing about Sam though that perplexes me - and which makes me feel he's less like Pete or Mikey and more like Alex (BB12) is that he has no support on the forums. I know that a forum favourite doesn't always win, but you'd expect the winner to have some support by now. Sam has none: he's on <6% on the DS poll, and <7 on TIBB. He's got less support than Hazel on both.


I'm not naive, and I expect BB to spin like mad over the next few weeks, but - as it stands now - it would be IMO a travesty if he won...

Eugene's Lair

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