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Voting is currently frozen, but latest eviction odds are:
Gina: 4/6 favourite;

Sallie: 2/1;

Dexter: 6/1

 

A few words of caution, though: this is based on how the bookies and punters think the voting is going. Also, Dexter is down to 4/1 with at least one bookie, and Sallie's 5/4 with another. With the betting this close, history says that any one of those 3 could still go at this stage...

Eugene's Lair
Originally Posted by erinp:

Every year I struggle with odds.

I know if you drift that's a good sign and if you shorten not so good.

Basically, yes.

Think of the odds as a fraction: if it's divided by 1, then it's a whole number. The smaller the fraction, the more likely that outcome (i.e. the more likely the punters think you'll be evicted). Gina is 4/6 = 2/3, Sallie = 2 and Dexter = 6, so Gina is more likely to go. If that fraction gets smaller (more likely), it's shortening; if it gets bigger (less likely), it's drifting.

 

If you multiply that fraction by the amount you bet, that's the amount you could win (plus you'd get your stake money back).

So: if you bet ÂĢ10 on each of the HMs, your winnings if they're evicted would be: Gina = ÂĢ6.67; Sallie = ÂĢ20; Dexter = ÂĢ60 (plus your ÂĢ10 back in each case).

Eugene's Lair
Originally Posted by Cold Sweat:
Originally Posted by erinp:
Originally Posted by Cold Sweat:

A very obvious outcome tonight.

 

So now we have a head-to-head eviction with Sallie fast becoming bb public enemy number one.


that's good news

Did you want Dexter to stay?

I want Sallie out,I would have preferred Gina to have been saved just to see Sallie's face fall.

FM
Originally Posted by Eugene's Lair:
Originally Posted by Cold Sweat:

I love Sally but i could not resist the 5/1 that Paddy Power were offering this afternoon and placed a significant bet.

Don't blame you. I saw that being talked about on DS this afternoon, and it seemed surprisingly long...

It was irresistible and had felt a likely outcome from the moment nominations were announced. I believe she will be the red hot odds on favourite to go by Friday night .

Cold Sweat

I was going to do a betting update now that Dexter's out of the picture, but the fact is there's absolutely nothing in it. Some bookies have one of the girls as a slight favourite, but both Gina and Sallie are essentially on the same odds (slightly below Evens to allow the bookies a profit...  )

 

[Edit]

The main bookies haven't changed, but since the end of tonight's HL show, Betfair has seen Sallie's odds shorten dramatically: she's roughly 1/2 favourite now, and still falling...

[/Edit]

Eugene's Lair
Last edited by Eugene's Lair
Originally Posted by erinp:

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/...rother/next-eviction

Can someone tell me who is the fav to get evicted, I do try to understand odds but sorry Eugene it's all lost on me, so if you could translate for me it would be appreciated .

Last time I looked Sallie was ODDS ON favourite to go.

Odds-On means you would win a smaller amount of money than you bet.

 

Sallie 4/11 - means to win ÂĢ4 you would have to bet ÂĢ11

 

Gina 5/2 - means to win ÂĢ5 you would only need to bet ÂĢ2

Extremely Fluffy Fluffy Thing
Originally Posted by Eugene's Lair:
Originally Posted by Cold Sweat:
Originally Posted by erinp:

result!!!

hmmm i have mixed feelings from that result.

Oh, I'm sure you'll be fine after you've cashed your winnings.

I doubt i will find a better earner this series.

 

I wonder if the mid-week freeze will be used again when 3 are up?

Cold Sweat
Originally Posted by Cold Sweat:
Originally Posted by Eugene's Lair:
Originally Posted by Cold Sweat:
Originally Posted by erinp:

result!!!

hmmm i have mixed feelings from that result.

Oh, I'm sure you'll be fine after you've cashed your winnings.

I doubt i will find a better earner this series.

 

I wonder if the mid-week freeze will be used again when 3 are up?

I missed it myself, but apparently Emma confirmed it was to be a regular feature.

Eugene's Lair
Originally Posted by Eugene's Lair:
Originally Posted by Cold Sweat:
Originally Posted by Eugene's Lair:
Originally Posted by Cold Sweat:
Originally Posted by erinp:

result!!!

hmmm i have mixed feelings from that result.

Oh, I'm sure you'll be fine after you've cashed your winnings.

I doubt i will find a better earner this series.

 

I wonder if the mid-week freeze will be used again when 3 are up?

I missed it myself, but apparently Emma confirmed it was to be a regular feature.

I can see certain benefits for bb/c5 – more votes early in the week and a Live mid-week link to the house could potentially attract a few more viewers to the nightly show.

Cold Sweat

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