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The follwing are the current odds to evict on Betfair:

Jemma: 33/100;

Anton: 247/100;

Jay: 133/10;

Harry: 47/1

[Ladbrokes have Jemma and Anton closer.]

 

So: not a big surprise that Jemma's odds-on favourite to go. Also looks like everyone thinks Harry's the least likely to go (though remember Jay had the longest odds last week).

I'm a little surprised how short Jay's odds are, though: I can't see Friday's eviction being between anyone other than Jemma and Anton...

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Originally Posted by erinp:

From Betfair
Jem = 1.53 (8/15).

 Anton = 2.84 (15/8).

 Jay = 32 (31/1)/

 Harry = 80 (79/1)
Still dont understand it ,I know that Harry/Jay look safe but the other two mean nothing to me.         


As you say: Harry and Jay are safe, with punters considering Harry the least likely to be evicted.

[I wouldn't get too worried about the odds of the outside HMs: Betting odds are affected by how much money is bet on a particular person, but there's been very little money bet on these two. That means that when someone does bet on one of them, it can seriously skew the odds. This happened last week, with Aaron's odds on Betfair fluctuating wildly because just a handful of people placed large bets.]

 

Jemma and Anton: Jemma's favourite to go. She's considered twice as likely to go as Anton, but their odds have been getting closer since the voting lines opened.

As far as money is concerned, the first number is how much you'll win if you bet an amount equal to the second number, So if you bet ÂĢ15 on Jemma going at 8/15 and she does, you'll win ÂĢ8 (and get your ÂĢ15 stake back), If you bet ÂĢ1 on Harry going at 79/1 and he does, you'll win ÂĢ79 (plus your ÂĢ1 back).

 

 

Getting a bit mathematical:

 Think of the odds as fractions: the smaller the fraction, the more likely punters consider that outcome to be.

Betting odds are given as:

 (number of times this outcome will not occur)/(number of times this outcome will occur)Looking at these odds for Jemma and Anton, that means that Jemma is likely to be evicted 2 chances out of 3, while Anton would be evicted 1 chance out of 3.

The difference between betting odds and probability is that probability is given as:

(number of times this outcome will occur)/(total number of outcomes)

So the probability of Jemma being evicted is 2/3; for Anton it's 1/3.

Eugene's Lair
Originally Posted by velvet donkey:

Money coming in for Aaron now to win.

 

Alex a bit unsteady.

If the odds are accurate, it looks like the Crypt twist has backfired badly for Jay (Anton's odds are largely irrelevant as they couldn't really get much worse.)

 

Aaron has benefited enormously despite all the sniping and the problems with Faye/Jemma. He's now a strong second favourite and fast catching-up with Alex.

Jay, by comparison, is continuing to slide and has gone from 3rd to 5th favourite in a couple of days...

Eugene's Lair
Originally Posted by Eugene's Lair:
Originally Posted by erinp:

From Betfair
Jem = 1.53 (8/15).

 Anton = 2.84 (15/8).

 Jay = 32 (31/1)/

 Harry = 80 (79/1)
Still dont understand it ,I know that Harry/Jay look safe but the other two mean nothing to me.         


As you say: Harry and Jay are safe, with punters considering Harry the least likely to be evicted.

[I wouldn't get too worried about the odds of the outside HMs: Betting odds are affected by how much money is bet on a particular person, but there's been very little money bet on these two. That means that when someone does bet on one of them, it can seriously skew the odds. This happened last week, with Aaron's odds on Betfair fluctuating wildly because just a handful of people placed large bets.]

 

Jemma and Anton: Jemma's favourite to go. She's considered twice as likely to go as Anton, but their odds have been getting closer since the voting lines opened.

As far as money is concerned, the first number is how much you'll win if you bet an amount equal to the second number, So if you bet ÂĢ15 on Jemma at going at 8/15 and she does, you'll win ÂĢ8 (and get your ÂĢ15 stake back), If you bet ÂĢ1 on Harry going at 79/1 and he does, you'll win ÂĢ79 (plus your ÂĢ1 back).

 

 

Getting a bit mathematical:

 Think of the odds as fractions: the smaller the fraction, the more likely punters consider that outcome to be.

Betting odds are given as:

 (number of times this outcome will not occur)/(number of times this outcome will occur)Looking at these odds for Jemma and Anton, that means that Jemma is likely to be evicted 2 chances out of 3, while Anton would be evicted 1 chance out of 3.

The difference between betting odds and probability is that probability is given as:

(number of times this outcome will occur)/(total number of outcomes)

So the probability of Jemma being evicted is 2/3; for Anton it's 1/3.

Cheers ,I think I get it if I put 15 on Jem going I win back 8 plus the 15.

But if I put 8 on Anton I win 15 plus my 8,so I get more money if Anton goes and the reason for that is he is inlikely to go over Jem. The highlighted part means that they are close then or not I'm mixed up again.

FM
Originally Posted by erinp:
Originally Posted by Eugene's Lair:
Looking at these odds for Jemma and Anton, that means that Jemma is likely to be evicted 2 chances out of 3, while Anton would be evicted 1 chance out of 3.

 

Cheers ,I think I get it if I put 15 on Jem going I win back 8 plus the 15.

But if I put 8 on Anton I win 15 plus my 8,so I get more money if Anton goes and the reason for that is he is inlikely to go over Jem. The highlighted part means that they are close then or not I'm mixed up again.


Your thinking re winnings is correct.

Putting the two sets of odds on an equal footing: imagine you bet ÂĢ10:

If you bet it on Jemma and she went, you'd win ÂĢ5.33;

if you bet it on Anton and he went, you'd win ÂĢ18.75 (In both cases you'd also get your ÂĢ10 back.)

As you say: you win more with Anton because he's considered less likely to go.

 

As for the odds being close: yes, they are (at least by BB standards). Although Jemma's favourite to go, it's worth pointing out that the odds between Jemma and Anton this week are similar to those between Anton and Aden last week: Anton was odd-on favourite to go, but it was Aden who was shown the door,

If BB does the same staggered announcement as they did last week, it's possible that some late voting might save Jemma (that's what is thought to have saved Anton.)

However: remember we're just talking about the perceptions of gamblers here. When I say that Anton will go 1 time out of 3, that's just what the betting is suggesting: no-one really knows. Jemma could be miles behind already...

Eugene's Lair

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