Originally Posted by erinp:
From Betfair
Jem = 1.53 (8/15).
Anton = 2.84 (15/8).
Jay = 32 (31/1)/
Harry = 80 (79/1)
Still dont understand it ,I know that Harry/Jay look safe but the other two mean nothing to me.
As you say: Harry and Jay are safe, with punters considering Harry the least likely to be evicted.
[I wouldn't get too worried about the odds of the outside HMs: Betting odds are affected by how much money is bet on a particular person, but there's been very little money bet on these two. That means that when someone does bet on one of them, it can seriously skew the odds. This happened last week, with Aaron's odds on Betfair fluctuating wildly because just a handful of people placed large bets.]
Jemma and Anton: Jemma's favourite to go. She's considered twice as likely to go as Anton, but their odds have been getting closer since the voting lines opened.
As far as money is concerned, the first number is how much you'll win if you bet an amount equal to the second number, So if you bet ÂĢ15 on Jemma going at 8/15 and she does, you'll win ÂĢ8 (and get your ÂĢ15 stake back), If you bet ÂĢ1 on Harry going at 79/1 and he does, you'll win ÂĢ79 (plus your ÂĢ1 back).
Getting a bit mathematical:
Think of the odds as fractions: the smaller the fraction, the more likely punters consider that outcome to be.
Betting odds are given as:
(number of times this outcome will not occur)/(number of times this outcome will occur)Looking at these odds for Jemma and Anton, that means that Jemma is likely to be evicted 2 chances out of 3, while Anton would be evicted 1 chance out of 3.
The difference between betting odds and probability is that probability is given as:
(number of times this outcome will occur)/(total number of outcomes)
So the probability of Jemma being evicted is 2/3; for Anton it's 1/3.