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Is this more Butterfly effect?
Quite the opposite. It's the upper point of stability for ocean surface temperatures. That's why they also claim "Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within 1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years.", so it doesn't really get any warmer!
The "Butterfly Effect" is to do with "chaos theory", where the predictability of an outcome from a given set of start point data can result in multiple outcomes (the problem with climate models and why they need to be "tweaked").
As I said, this paper is an SRES paper (Special Report on Emission Scenarios). Which means that the paper's conclusion is biased by uncertainties in many areas (see the link in my last post). I suppose that you could say the conclusion of the paper includes a Butterfly Effect.
Having said that it doesn't really get any warmer, it can get cooler. History has shown this with our understanding of cool periods like the Dalton Minimum and Maunder Minimum etc. (associated with low TSI).
WRT "strong El Niño". This is the result of cyclical weather systems that come into phase. When they are out of phase they are given the label of La Niña because they are weak and effeminate (just how macho can you get)!
Hope this helps and if I haven't covered everything, please post again.
Best regards, suricat.